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Os BRICS sob a Ótica da Teoria dos Acordos Regionais de Comércio

Listed author(s):
  • Lucas Pedreira do Couto Ferraz

Este artigo avalia os principais efeitos, sobre a economia brasileira, da criação de uma zona de livre comércio entre os BRICS. Uma análise de bem-estar sugere que a economia chinesa é a que mais se aproxima da definição de um "parceiro natural" de comércio para o Brasil, em comparação aos demais BRICS. Além disso, apesar do baixo fluxo de comércio bilateral existente entre os BRICS -à exceção da China -, a remoção das tarifas de importação intrabloco pode aumentar significativamente as relações de trocas entre estas economias. Os níveis de bem-estar alcançados são comparáveis aos de um acordo de livre comércio entre o Brasil e os Estados Unidos, por exemplo. Este resultado, contudo, é fortemente influenciado pela presença da China, sinalizando a crescente aproximação do padrão de comércio praticado por esta economia daqueles praticados por economias mais desenvolvidas, como os Estados Unidos. Palavras-chave: livre comércio; equilíbrio geral computável; criação e desvio de comércio; bem-estar social. This article evaluates the main effects for the Brazilian economy from the creation of a free trade zone among the BRICS economies. A welfare analysis suggests the Chinese economy to be the closest - in comparison to the remaining BRICS - to the definition of a natural trade partner for Brazil. Furthermore, despite the current low levels of bilateral trade flows among the BRICS economies - China excluded - the nullification of intra block import tariffs may significantly increase trade relations among these economies. For instance, resulting welfare levels are comparable in magnitude to the ones obtained in a hypothetical bilateral free trade agreement involving Brazil and the USA. This result, however, is strongly influenced by the presence of China, signaling the increasing proximity of the Chinese trade pattern to the ones usually observed in more developed economies, such as the USA. Keywords: free trade; computable general equilibrium; trade creation and diversion; social welfare.

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Paper provided by Instituto de Pesquisa Econômica Aplicada - IPEA in its series Discussion Papers with number 1789.

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Length: 38 pages
Date of creation: Nov 2012
Handle: RePEc:ipe:ipetds:1789
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