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Existe Bolha No Mercado Imobiliário Brasileiro?

Listed author(s):
  • Mário Jorge Mendonça
  • Adolfo Sachsida

Este estudo tem por objetivo avaliar a possibilidade de existência de "bolha" especulativa no mercado imobiliário brasileiro. Para tanto, estudou-se e empregou-se diversas metodologias, tanto em nível microeconômico quanto em nível macroeconômico. De maneira geral, os resultados apontam para a possibilidade concreta de existência de uma bolha no mercado de imóveis no Brasil. De maneira objetiva, a Teoria Austríaca do Ciclo Econômico (Tace), reforçada por técnicas estatísticas, fornece uma base teórica sólida para apontar o governo federal, por meio de suas políticas fiscais e de estímulo ao crédito, como o principal responsável pelo surgimento desta bolha. A insistência do governo em aquecer ainda mais um mercado imobiliário já aquecido só tende a piorar o resultado final. Palavras-chave: bolha imobiliária; Escola Austríaca; modelos de vetores autorregressivos (VAR); política monetária; política fiscal. This article verifies the occurrence of a real estate bubble in the Brazilian economy. Overall, our results suggest the existence of a bubble in the real estate sector of the economy. The Austrian School of economics provides a solid explanation to this phenomenon, which are reinforced by statistical techniques, suggesting the Federal government, with equivocate fiscal and monetary policy, as the main responsible for the creation of this problem. Keywords: real estate bubble; Austrian School; VAR models; monetary policy; fiscal policy.

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Paper provided by Instituto de Pesquisa Econômica Aplicada - IPEA in its series Discussion Papers with number 1762.

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Length: 66 pages
Date of creation: Aug 2012
Handle: RePEc:ipe:ipetds:1762
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