IDEAS home Printed from
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Existe Bolha No Mercado Imobiliário Brasileiro?


  • Mário Jorge Mendonça
  • Adolfo Sachsida


Este estudo tem por objetivo avaliar a possibilidade de existência de "bolha" especulativa no mercado imobiliário brasileiro. Para tanto, estudou-se e empregou-se diversas metodologias, tanto em nível microeconômico quanto em nível macroeconômico. De maneira geral, os resultados apontam para a possibilidade concreta de existência de uma bolha no mercado de imóveis no Brasil. De maneira objetiva, a Teoria Austríaca do Ciclo Econômico (Tace), reforçada por técnicas estatísticas, fornece uma base teórica sólida para apontar o governo federal, por meio de suas políticas fiscais e de estímulo ao crédito, como o principal responsável pelo surgimento desta bolha. A insistência do governo em aquecer ainda mais um mercado imobiliário já aquecido só tende a piorar o resultado final. Palavras-chave: bolha imobiliária; Escola Austríaca; modelos de vetores autorregressivos (VAR); política monetária; política fiscal. This article verifies the occurrence of a real estate bubble in the Brazilian economy. Overall, our results suggest the existence of a bubble in the real estate sector of the economy. The Austrian School of economics provides a solid explanation to this phenomenon, which are reinforced by statistical techniques, suggesting the Federal government, with equivocate fiscal and monetary policy, as the main responsible for the creation of this problem. Keywords: real estate bubble; Austrian School; VAR models; monetary policy; fiscal policy.

Suggested Citation

  • Mário Jorge Mendonça & Adolfo Sachsida, 2012. "Existe Bolha No Mercado Imobiliário Brasileiro?," Discussion Papers 1762, Instituto de Pesquisa Econômica Aplicada - IPEA.
  • Handle: RePEc:ipe:ipetds:1762

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL:
    Download Restriction: no


    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.

    Cited by:

    1. Marcelo M. de Oliveira & Alexandre C. L. Almeida, 2014. "Testing for rational speculative bubbles in the Brazilian residential real-estate market," Papers 1401.7615,

    More about this item

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:


    Access and download statistics


    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ipe:ipetds:1762. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Fabio Schiavinatto). General contact details of provider: .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.