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Padrões de Especialização Comercial no Mercosul

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  • Daniel Grimaldi
  • Flávio Carneiro
  • Luís Felipe Oliveira

Abstract

Este trabalho analisa a evolução da competitividade de Argentina, Brasil, Paraguai e Uruguai no fluxo de comércio do Mercado Comum do Sul (Mercosul), observando a especialização relativa e as alterações nas distribuições das vantagens comparativas reveladas entre diferentes categorias de produto. Para isto, analisam-se índices de vantagem comparativa revelada de Balassa (1965) de cada um dos quatro países entre 1991 e 2008, com base em dados extraídos da Base de Comércio Exterior das Nações Unidas-UNComtrade (UN, s.d.). Após o cálculo do índice, os produtos foram agrupados em categorias seguindo proposta de Lall (2000). Em seguida, duas metodologias foram utilizadas: a primeira, baseada em matrizes de transição markovianas; e a segunda, baseada em estimações não paramétricas das funções densidade de probabilidade do IB. A análise realizada sugere que houve, ao longo do período, uma redução relativa dos produtos nos quais o Brasil tinha vantagem comparativa revelada, o que pode significar que o Brasil perdeu mercado no Mercosul em um número expressivo de produtos, ou ainda que o Brasil tenha sofrido um processo de especialização comercial. Outra conclusão é a de que, mesmo após a criação do acordo, os países integrantes não conseguiram aumentar a participação no comércio de seus parceiros, resultado que seria esperado da criação de uma área de livre-comércio. This paper analyses the competitiveness evolution in Argentina, Brazil, Paraguay and Uruguay within Mercosur trade flows, on the relative specialization perspective and changes in the distribution of revealed comparative advantage among distinct product categories. For this purpose, it measures the Balassa revealed comparative advantage indexes, of each country between 1991 and 2008, based on UNComtrade data. Then, goods were grouped in categories according to Lall (2000), and two methodologies were applied: one using markovian transition matrixes and other based in non-parametric

Suggested Citation

  • Daniel Grimaldi & Flávio Carneiro & Luís Felipe Oliveira, 2012. "Padrões de Especialização Comercial no Mercosul," Discussion Papers 1692, Instituto de Pesquisa Econômica Aplicada - IPEA.
  • Handle: RePEc:ipe:ipetds:1692
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    References listed on IDEAS

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