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Avaliando o Efeito de um Choque de Política Monetária Sobre o Mercado Imobiliário

Author

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  • Mario Jorge Mendonça
  • Luis Alberto Medrano
  • Adolfo Sachsida

Abstract

Este artigo estima um vetor autorregressivo (VAR) bayesiano para verificar o efeito de um choque de política monetária sobre o mercado imobiliário. Usando dados de junho de 2000 a agosto de 2010, pode-se verificar que um aumento da taxa de juros tem efeitos negativos sobre o mercado imobiliário: i) o estoque de crédito de financiamento imobiliário registra uma queda de 2% imediatamente após o choque monetário; e ii) o produto industrial da construção civil registra uma queda logo a partir do primeiro mês depois da contração monetária. This article investigates the effects of monetary policy shock in the Brazilian real state market using structural VAR through the period June/2000 to August/2010. The identification is done following the agnostic procedure suggested by Uhlig (2005). The mains results are: The stock of credit to finance housing points out a drop of 2% immediately after and the industrial output of civil construction decreases strongly after this contractionary shock.

Suggested Citation

  • Mario Jorge Mendonça & Luis Alberto Medrano & Adolfo Sachsida, 2011. "Avaliando o Efeito de um Choque de Política Monetária Sobre o Mercado Imobiliário," Discussion Papers 1631, Instituto de Pesquisa Econômica Aplicada - IPEA.
    • Handle: RePEc:ipe:ipetds:1631
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