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Volatilidade De Renda E A Cobertura Do Programa Bolsa Família

Listed author(s):
  • Sergei Soares

Este texto argumenta que há uma incompatibilidade entre os critérios de concessão do benefício Programa Bolsa Família (PBF) e a metodologia usada para definir suas metas de cobertura. Enquanto as regras de concessão rezam que os beneficiários, na ausência de grandes variações positivas na renda, têm direito ao benefício por um período de dois anos, as metas são estimadas com base em pesquisas domiciliares transversais ? ou seja, aquelas que não seguem seus entrevistados ao longo do tempo. Na presença de volatilidade na renda dos indivíduos, os dois são incompatíveis. O texto usa a Pesquisa Mensal de Emprego (PME), que contém um painel de quatro meses, para estimar a volatilidade na renda de indivíduos com o perfil próximo ao perfil do Bolsa Família. As conclusões são que a volatilidade é alta e as estimativas de pobreza longitudinais de quatro meses são dois terços maiores que as estimativas de pobreza transversais, feitas em um único mês. Portanto, o método de estabelecer metas de cobertura do Bolsa Família deve ser mudado. This text argues that the criteria used to define Bolsa Família benefits and the criteria used to establish coverage targets are inconsistent. While individual concession criteria are that beneficiaries should be paid for two years if they do not suffer large upward income mobility, the coverage targets are estimated using a household surveys that interview a cross-section of individuals and thus do not follow them through time. If poor individuals suffer income volatility the two criteria are inconsistent and Bolsa Família will always have an eligible public that outnumbers its coverage targets. The monthly employment survey (PME) follows a four month panel of individuals and its thus used to estimate the income volatility of those whose profile is close to the Bolsa Familia profile. My conclusions are that income volatility is high and that four month longitudinal poverty is about 2/3 higher than one month crosssection poverty. The conclusion is that the methodology used to estimate Bolsa Família coverage targets should be changed.

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Paper provided by Instituto de Pesquisa Econômica Aplicada - IPEA in its series Discussion Papers with number 1459.

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Length: 22 pages
Date of creation: Dec 2009
Handle: RePEc:ipe:ipetds:1459
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