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O Papel dos Fundamentos Domésticos na Vulnerabilidade Econômica dos Emergentes

Author

Listed:
  • Ajax Moreira
  • Katia Rocha
  • Roberto Siqueira

Abstract

O objetivo deste estudo consiste em respaldar políticas com potencial de reduzir a vulnerabilidade econômica de um grupo de 23 países emergentes no período de 1998 a 2007, amostra que corresponde a mais de 96% da capitalização de mercado do índice Emerging Markets Bond Index Global (EMBIG), do banco de investimentos JPMorgan, em dezembro de 2007. Através de um modelo de painel de spreads soberanos e a partir da constatação de que o impacto de um choque global de risco é país-específico, o estudo foca no papel dos fundamentos domésticos como multiplicadores dos choques externos. Os resultados apóiam políticas voltadas a uma maior liberalização financeira, gerenciamento da dívida pública com diminuição da dívida bruta e do estoque indexado à moeda estrangeira, sustentabilidade da política fiscal, desenvolvimento do mercado financeiro doméstico, crescimento econômico consistente, além de melhorias nos indicadores de governança, em especial quanto ao risco jurisdicional e à qualidade da regulação. This study aims to evaluate policies that can potentially improve the economic vulnerability of a group of emerging market countries that comprises 23 countries in the period 1998-2007, coping up to 96% of the JPMorgan Emerging Markets Bond Index Global as of December 2007. Through a panel data model on sovereign spreads and based on the reasoning that the impact of a global risk aversion shock is country–specific, this study focuses on the role of the macroeconomic fundamentals as multipliers of external shocks. The results support policies towards financial liberalization, public debt management, fiscal policy sustainability, consistent economic growth, development of the domestic financial market, and improvements in governance indicators especially the rules of law and regulatory quality.

Suggested Citation

  • Ajax Moreira & Katia Rocha & Roberto Siqueira, 2008. "O Papel dos Fundamentos Domésticos na Vulnerabilidade Econômica dos Emergentes," Discussion Papers 1358, Instituto de Pesquisa Econômica Aplicada - IPEA.
  • Handle: RePEc:ipe:ipetds:1358
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