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Convenção e Rigidez na Política Monetária: Uma Estimativa da Função de Reação do BCB – 2000-2007

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  • André de Melo Modenesi

Abstract

A adoção da regra de Taylor é peça fundamental do Novo Consenso em Política Monetária, marcado pelo reconhecimento, realizado tardiamente pela ortodoxia, de que a base monetária é endógena. Com base na literatura resenhada, é estimada a função de reação do Banco Central do Brasil (BCB) para avaliar a condução da política monetária brasileira, após a adoção do regime de metas de inflação. A função de reação do BCB possui características que corroboram a tese de que a formação da taxa Selic é pautada por uma convenção pró-conservadorismo na condução da política monetária, como propõem Nakano e Erber. Os resultados apontam excessiva lentidão nos movimentos dos juros e um elevado patamar da taxa de equilíbrio, confirmando a tese de que o BCB: a) incorporou a convenção de que há um elevado piso para a Selic; e b) dá pouca atenção ao estado da economia (o desvio da inflação em relação à meta e o hiato do produto) imprimindo demasiado gradualismo na determinação da taxa básica. A principal conclusão é que, mantido o quadro atual, a taxa de juros dificilmente se reduzirá de forma satisfatória. Seria necessária uma drástica deflação para que a Selic caísse significativamente. Isso aponta para a necessidade de um debate sobre a adequação da atual estratégia de estabilização. The adoption of the Taylor rule is an essential element of the New Consensus on Monetary Policy, characterized by the recent acceptance, by the orthodoxy, of money stock endogeneity. In line with the reviewed literature, a reaction function of the Brazilian Central Bank (BCB) is estimated with a view to evaluating the conduction of monetary policy after the 1999 adoption of the inflation targeting regime in Brazil. The BCB’s reaction function has some features that corroborate the thesis under which the formation of the Selic rate is ruled by a pro-conservatism convention in the conduction of monetary policy, as affirmed by Nakano and Erber. Results show an excessive slowness in interest movement and a high level of the equilibrium rate, confirming the thesis that the BCB a) incorporated the convention according to which Selic must have a high floor; and b) is inattentive to the state of the economy (the inflation and output gaps), and expresses an excessive gradualism in determining the overnight rate. The main conclusion is that, if the present situation continues, the interest rate will hardly be reduced in a satisfactory way. This evidences the need for a debate on the adequation of the present stabilization strategy.

Suggested Citation

  • André de Melo Modenesi, 2008. "Convenção e Rigidez na Política Monetária: Uma Estimativa da Função de Reação do BCB – 2000-2007," Discussion Papers 1351, Instituto de Pesquisa Econômica Aplicada - IPEA.
  • Handle: RePEc:ipe:ipetds:1351
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