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O PAC e o Setor Elétrico: Desafios para o Abastecimento do Mercado Brasileiro (2007- 2008)

Author

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  • Bolívar Pêgo
  • Carlos àlvares da Silva Campos Neto

Abstract

Este texto tem como objetivo geral descrever o Programa de Aceleração do Crescimento (PAC), fazer uma análise recente da evolução do setor elétrico brasileiro, assim como do PAC enquanto instrumento de crescimento do setor elétrico. Como objetivo específico analisa se o crescimento da oferta de energia elétrica inserida no PAC é suficiente para atender o crescimento da demanda de 2007-2010. Para a análise do objetivo específico foram criados dois cenários de crescimento da oferta e da demanda de energia elétrica, tendo ambos como base a capacidade instalada de 100 mil MW: i) cenário 1, com dados do Ministério de Minas e Energia (MME); e ii) cenário 2, com dados do PAC (2007-2010). O resultado da análise constata que o abastecimento do mercado de energia elétrica para os próximos anos não está compatível com o crescimento da oferta explicitada no PAC. Os dois cenários estão muito próximos, e a incompatibilidade fica mais explícita quando se estima que a elasticidade-renda da demanda é de 1,3 ao ano Isto implica uma necessidade de crescimento da oferta de 6,5 mil MW ao ano, totalizando 26 mil MW no período, desde que o PIB cresça a 5% ao ano. Apesar da relevância dos investimentos previstos no PAC, eles não são suficientes para eliminar um possível risco de insuficiência da oferta de energia elétrica no Brasil, mesmo considerando que não haverá atraso no cronograma de suas obras. Portanto, a garantia de abastecimento do mercado até 2013 está correndo sério risco, tendo em vista o aumento crescente do déficit de geração, particularmente para os anos de 2010 e 2011, os quais são reconhecidos pelo próprio governo como anos críticos. Dados da Empresa de Pesquisa Energética (EPE) apresentam um risco de déficit de 4,5% em 2010, e de 10% (o dobro do que o mercado de energia aceita como limite) em 2011. This paper has as generality objective to describe the Program of Acceleration of Growth (PAC) to make a recent analysis of the evolution of the Brazilian electric sector and the PAC as instrument of growth of electric sector. As specific objective it analyzes if the growth of offers of electric energy, inserted in the PAC, is enough to take care of the growth of the demand 2007-2010. For the analysis two scenes of growth had been created of offer and demand of electric energy, both having as base the installed capacity of 100 thousand MW: i) scene 1, with data of the Ministry of Mines and Energy MME; and ii) scene 2 with data of the PAC (2007-2010). The result of the analysis evidences that the supplying of the market of electric energy for the next years is not compatible with the growth of offers inserted in the PAC. The two scenes are very next and the incompatibility is more explicit when esteem that the elasticity income of the demand is of 1,3 to the year, what it implies a necessity of growth of offers of 6,5 thousand MW to the year, totalizing 26 thousand MW in the period, since that the GIP grows 5% to the year. Although the relevance of the investments foreseen in the PAC, they are not enough to eliminate a possible risk on insufficiency of offer of electric energy in Brazil, exactly considering that she will not have delay in the chronogram of its workmanships. Therefore, the guarantee of supplying of the market up to 2013 is running serious risk in view of the increasing increase of the generation deficit, particularly for the years of 2010 and 2011, where the proper government recognizes that they will be critical years. Data of the Energetic Research Interprise EPE present a risk of deficit of 4,5% in 2010 and 10% (the double of what the market of accepted energy as limit) in 2011.

Suggested Citation

  • Bolívar Pêgo & Carlos àlvares da Silva Campos Neto, 2008. "O PAC e o Setor Elétrico: Desafios para o Abastecimento do Mercado Brasileiro (2007- 2008)," Discussion Papers 1329, Instituto de Pesquisa Econômica Aplicada - IPEA.
  • Handle: RePEc:ipe:ipetds:1329
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