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Gasto Social e Política Macroeconômica: Trajetórias e Tensôes no Período 1995-2005

  • Jorge Abrahão de Castro
  • José Aparecido Ribeiro
  • José Valente Chaves
  • Bruno de Carvalho Duarte
  • Helenne Barbosa Simões

Este trabalho analisa a trajetória do Gasto Social Federal (GSF) de acordo com a metodologia de áreas de atuação, desenvolvida na Diretoria de Estudos Sociais (Disoc) do Instituto de Pesquisa Econômica Aplicada (Ipea). Atualiza-se a série iniciada em 1995 até o ano de 2005, completando assim um período de 11 anos. Constata-se o crescimento do Gasto Social Federal, liderado pelas áreas de previdência e assistência social, tanto em seus valores reais, quanto em proporção do Produto Interno Bruto (PIB). Todavia, discute-se que tal crescimento permitiu uma expansão na proteção social proporcionada pelas políticas públicas - que não deve ser subestimada. A trajetória do GSF revela-se também bastante irregular e instável no período, e um segundo objetivo deste texto consiste em relacionar essa instabilidade à condução da política macroeconômica. Observa-se que as mudanças ocorridas na gestão da política econômica - que delimitam claramente os três mandatos presidenciais deste período - condicionam fortemente a trajetória do GSF. Para tal, contextualiza-se esse gasto diante da trajetória da despesa financeira do governo federal e ao desempenho da carga tributária. This paper aims at analyzing the trajectory of Federal Social Expenditure (FSE), according to the methodology developed by the Social Studies Department (Disoc) of the Institute of Applied Economic Research (Ipea). The series is updated, now covering an 11 years period - from 1995 to 2005. It is identified a growth in the FSE both in absolute values and in percentage of the GDP, particularly concerning to social insurance (pensions and disability benefits) and social assistance programs. We argue that such increase in social expenditure allowed a higher social protection under the public policies. In the other hand, it was also noted an irregular and unstable growth of the FSE, and as we argue there is a link between that instability and the macroeconomic policy in the mentioned period. We observe that changes in the economic policies have strongly influenced the amount of FSE in the referred interval, which covers three presidential mandates. This way, the FSE is compared to the amount of Financial Expenditure of the Federal Government and to the Tax Burden.

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Paper provided by Instituto de Pesquisa Econômica Aplicada - IPEA in its series Discussion Papers with number 1324.

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Length: 47 pages
Date of creation: Jan 2008
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:ipe:ipetds:1324
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  1. Paulo Roberto Corbucci, 2007. "Desafios da Educação Superior e Desenvolvimento no Brasil," Discussion Papers 1287, Instituto de Pesquisa Econômica Aplicada - IPEA.
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