Qual a Sensibilidade do Investimento Privado a Aumentos na Carga Tributária? Novas Estimativas Agregadas e Desagregadas a Partir dos Dados das Contas Nacionais - Referência 2000

In the beginning of 2007 Dos Santos e Pires (2007, henceforth DS&P) reported estimates close to minus one for the (gross, aggregate, long run) tax rate semi elasticity of Brazilian private investment in the post-Real Plan period. This paper has two basic goals, i.e. i) to revise DS&P´s data and econometric estimates in light of the newest official national accounts data (which were made available in March, 28, 2007); and, given that there are good reasons to suspect that different kinds of taxes affect private decisions differently, ii) to extend DS&P´s analysis investigating also the impact of different disaggregations of the gross aggregate tax rate on the Brazilian private investment in the 1995-2006 period. The main results reported here are that the new data do not seem compatible with DS&P´s previous finding and that precise new estimates are difficult to obtain in light of the evidence of strong structural breaks within our sample and of the existence of two cointegrating relationships (and, hence, of the difficulties associated with identifying cointegrating vectors). Compatible results were obtained also with the use of the three most important disaggregations of the gross tax rate.