Reestimativas do Investimento Privado Brasileiro I): Qual a Sensibilidade do Investimento Privado "Referência 1985" A Aumentos na Carga Tributária?
This article attempts to offer three specific contributions to the current debate on the macroeconomic impacts of taxation in Brazil and the ?trade-off? between taxation/income distribution and growth available to Brazilians. First, it attempts to ?map? the (relatively small) recent econometric literature on the behavior of aggregate investment in Brazil. Second, it discusses the (problematic) Brazilian data on aggregate investment and presents brand new quarterly estimates of Brazilian private investment based on primary data compiled by government agencies (more specifically, the Ministry of Finance and the Ministry of Planning) and on the work by Gobetti (2006). Third, it uses these estimates ? and quarterly estimates of the aggregate tax rate produced by Dos Santos and Costa (2007) and other, more traditional, variables ? to produce econometric specifications of the post-Real plan behavior of Brazil?s aggregate private investment. A potentially important finding is that the long-run aggregate tax rate elasticity of Brazilian private investment seems to be close to minus one.
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