IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ipe/ipetds/0081.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Model for Projections and Simulations of the Brazilian Economy

Author

Listed:
  • Eustáquio J. Reis
  • Marco Antônio F. H. Cavalcanti
  • Alexandre Samy de Castro
  • José Luiz Rossi Jr
  • Emerson Rildo de Araújo
  • Beatriz Muriel Hernandez

Abstract

This paper presents the latest version of the annual econometric model for the Brazilian economy developed by the Group of Macroeconomic Analysis and Modelling (Gamma) at IPEA/DIPES. The model is designed to make medium run projections and policy simulations. The specification of the model is basically Keynesian. Estimation features include the use of various time series methods, such as FIML (full information maximum likelihood) cointegration analysis and time varying parameters, besides OLS and instrumental variables estimation. In general, the development of the model’s equations has explicitly tried to ensure desirable long-run properties as well as reasonable short-run dynamics. Este texto apresenta a última versão do modelo econométrico anual da economia brasileira desenvolvido pelo Gamma (Grupo de Análise e Modelagem Macroeconômica) do IPEA/DIPES. O modelo destina-se à realização de projeções e simulações de política econômica de médio e longo prazos. A especificação do modelo é basicamente keynesiana. Os procedimentos econométricos incluem diversos métodos de séries temporais, tais como análise de co-integração e modelos com parâmetros variáveis no tempo, bem como estimação por MQO e variáveis instrumentais. O desenvolvimento das equações visou, em geral, à obtenção de propriedades de longo prazo desejáveis do ponto de vista teórico, além de dinâmica de curto prazo consistente com os dados.

Suggested Citation

  • Eustáquio J. Reis & Marco Antônio F. H. Cavalcanti & Alexandre Samy de Castro & José Luiz Rossi Jr & Emerson Rildo de Araújo & Beatriz Muriel Hernandez, 2015. "Model for Projections and Simulations of the Brazilian Economy," Discussion Papers 0081, Instituto de Pesquisa Econômica Aplicada - IPEA.
  • Handle: RePEc:ipe:ipetds:0081
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.ipea.gov.br/portal/images/stories/PDFs/TDs/ingles/dp_81.pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    More about this item

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ipe:ipetds:0081. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Fabio Schiavinatto). General contact details of provider: http://edirc.repec.org/data/ipeaabr.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.