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Model for Projections and Simulations of the Brazilian Economy


  • Eustáquio J. Reis
  • Marco Antônio F. H. Cavalcanti
  • Alexandre Samy de Castro
  • José Luiz Rossi Jr
  • Emerson Rildo de Araújo
  • Beatriz Muriel Hernandez


This paper presents the latest version of the annual econometric model for the Brazilian economy developed by the Group of Macroeconomic Analysis and Modelling (Gamma) at IPEA/DIPES. The model is designed to make medium run projections and policy simulations. The specification of the model is basically Keynesian. Estimation features include the use of various time series methods, such as FIML (full information maximum likelihood) cointegration analysis and time varying parameters, besides OLS and instrumental variables estimation. In general, the development of the model’s equations has explicitly tried to ensure desirable long-run properties as well as reasonable short-run dynamics. Este texto apresenta a última versão do modelo econométrico anual da economia brasileira desenvolvido pelo Gamma (Grupo de Análise e Modelagem Macroeconômica) do IPEA/DIPES. O modelo destina-se à realização de projeções e simulações de política econômica de médio e longo prazos. A especificação do modelo é basicamente keynesiana. Os procedimentos econométricos incluem diversos métodos de séries temporais, tais como análise de co-integração e modelos com parâmetros variáveis no tempo, bem como estimação por MQO e variáveis instrumentais. O desenvolvimento das equações visou, em geral, à obtenção de propriedades de longo prazo desejáveis do ponto de vista teórico, além de dinâmica de curto prazo consistente com os dados.

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  • Eustáquio J. Reis & Marco Antônio F. H. Cavalcanti & Alexandre Samy de Castro & José Luiz Rossi Jr & Emerson Rildo de Araújo & Beatriz Muriel Hernandez, 2015. "Model for Projections and Simulations of the Brazilian Economy," Discussion Papers 0081, Instituto de Pesquisa Econômica Aplicada - IPEA.
  • Handle: RePEc:ipe:ipetds:0081

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