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Business Cycle and Political Election Outcomes: New Evidence from The Chilean Democracy

Author

Listed:
  • Rodrigo Cerda

    () (Instituto de Economía. Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile.)

  • Rodrigo Vergara

    () (Instituto de Economía. Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile.)

Abstract

This paper explores the influence of economic variables in Chilean presidential elections. We use a panel where the dependent variable corresponds to the share of the vote obtained by the incumbent at a municipal level in the presidential elections of 1989, 1993 and 1999. We focus on the unemployment rate and the output-gap and find that both have a significant influence on the vote. The estimations also indicate that variables such as the crime rate, the poverty rate and the political coalition of the mayor in each municipality have an influence on the vote.

Suggested Citation

  • Rodrigo Cerda & Rodrigo Vergara, 2005. "Business Cycle and Political Election Outcomes: New Evidence from The Chilean Democracy," Documentos de Trabajo 295, Instituto de Economia. Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile..
  • Handle: RePEc:ioe:doctra:295
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    File URL: http://www.economia.uc.cl/docs/dt_295.pdf
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    Keywords

    Political elections; business cycle; unemployment;

    JEL classification:

    • C33 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles

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