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Is There an Endogenous Problem if Sustainability on the Pay-as-you-go Social Security System? Using the Chilean Experience as an Experiment

Author

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  • Rodrigo Cerda

    () (Instituto de Economía. Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile.)

Abstract

The paper provides empirical evidence about the effects of the "pay-as-you-go" and the individual account social security systems over the family choice variables such as fertility rate, schooling, and time spent on children and it links those effects with the sustainability of the fiscal budget on the "pay-as-you-go"system. The paper uses the 1998 CASEN database from Chile. On the database, the "pay-as-you-go" and the individual account systems coexist for individuals 35 years and older as result of the regulations established by the 1981 social security reform law. The results show that the numbers of children per family and female labor supply are depressed by increases on the "pay-as-you-go" payroll tax rate. Those effects produce an endogenous sustainability problem over the fiscal budget, as the number of individuals paying taxes and the amount of taxes paid by females decrease endogenously over time. The individual system does not show effect at all over the family decision choice analyzed.

Suggested Citation

  • Rodrigo Cerda, 2002. "Is There an Endogenous Problem if Sustainability on the Pay-as-you-go Social Security System? Using the Chilean Experience as an Experiment," Documentos de Trabajo 203, Instituto de Economia. Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile..
  • Handle: RePEc:ioe:doctra:203
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    File URL: http://www.economia.uc.cl/docs/dt_203.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Gary S. Becker & Kevin M. Murphy & Robert Tamura, 1994. "Human Capital, Fertility, and Economic Growth," NBER Chapters,in: Human Capital: A Theoretical and Empirical Analysis with Special Reference to Education (3rd Edition), pages 323-350 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Laurence J. Kotlikoff, 1998. "Simulating the Privatization of Social Security in General Equilibrium," NBER Chapters,in: Privatizing Social Security, pages 265-311 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Ehrlich, Isaac & Zhong, Jian-Guo, 1998. "Social Security and the Real Economy: An Inquiry into Some Neglected Issues," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 88(2), pages 151-157, May.
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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • H55 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - Social Security and Public Pensions
    • J13 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Fertility; Family Planning; Child Care; Children; Youth
    • J2 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor

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