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Post Covid-19: Recovering and sustaining India's growth

Author

Listed:
  • Ashima Goyal

    (Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research)

Abstract

The paper discusses past virtuous growth cycles in India and argues that the post Covid-19 macro-financial package is an opportunity to trigger another such cycle, by raising marginal propensities to spend above those to save. It is feasible since the major constraints that aborted such cycles in the past are waning. Among these constraints are commodity price shocks and other supply-side bottlenecks; financial repression, mono-culture and discretionary allocation; and fiscal space. While the first is relieved, and there is adequate progress on the others, fiscal space is still constrained. Even so, the Covid-19 crisis necessitates a large macroeconomic stimulus. In order not to overstrain government finances it should be targeted, temporary and self-limiting. Financing features can aid this, as well as improve financial stability. Specific implications for policy are drawn out.

Suggested Citation

  • Ashima Goyal, 2020. "Post Covid-19: Recovering and sustaining India's growth," Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research, Mumbai Working Papers 2020-016, Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research, Mumbai, India.
    • Handle: RePEc:ind:igiwpp:2020-016
    as

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    File URL: http://www.igidr.ac.in/pdf/publication/WP-2020-016.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Goyal, Ashima & Agarwal, Deepak Kumar, 2020. "Policy transmission in Indian money markets: The role of liquidity," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 21(C).
    2. Ashima Goyal, 2014. "Purchasing Power Parity, Wages and Inflation in Emerging Markets," Foreign Trade Review, , vol. 49(4), pages 327-347, November.
    3. Ashima Goyal & Bhavyaa Sharma, 2018. "Government Expenditure in India: Composition and Multipliers," Journal of Quantitative Economics, Springer;The Indian Econometric Society (TIES), vol. 16(1), pages 47-85, December.
    4. Thirlwall, Anthony P & Hussain, Mohammed Nureldin, 1982. "The Balance of Payments Constraint, Capital Flows and Growth Rate Differences between Developing Countries," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 34(3), pages 498-510, November.
    5. Zhongxiang Zhang, 2018. "Energy price reform in China," CCEP Working Papers 1805, Centre for Climate & Energy Policy, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    6. Ashima Goyal & Akhilesh Verma, 2018. "Slowdown in Bank Credit Growth: Aggregate Demand or Bank Non-performing Assets?," Margin: The Journal of Applied Economic Research, National Council of Applied Economic Research, vol. 12(3), pages 257-275, August.
    7. S. Mahendra Dev, 2018. "Transformation of Indian Agriculture? Growth, Inclusiveness and Sustainability," Working Papers id:12955, eSocialSciences.
    8. Goyal, Ashima, 1994. "Growth dynamics in a general equilibrium macroeconomic model for India," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 16(3), pages 265-289, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Covid-19; virtuous growth cycles; commodity price shocks; macro-financial stimulus;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • O11 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development
    • O16 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Financial Markets; Saving and Capital Investment; Corporate Finance and Governance

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