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Low-frequency determinants of inflation in the euro area

  • Sven Schreiber

    ()

    (Macroeconomic Policy Institute (IMK) at Hans Boeckler Foundation, Duesseldorf)

We use frequency-wise Granger-causality tests and error-correction models to investigate the driving forces behind longer-run inflation developments in the euro area. Employing an eclectic approach we consider various relevant theories. With a general-to-specific testing strategy we distill the unemployment rate and long-term interest rates as causal for low-frequency variations of inflation. Money growth is found to be causal for inflation only if other variables are omitted, which we therefore interpret as a spurious result.

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File URL: http://www.boeckler.de/pdf/p_imk_wp_6_2009.pdf
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Paper provided by IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute in its series IMK Working Paper with number 6-2009.

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Length: 25 pages
Date of creation: 2009
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:imk:wpaper:6-2009
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