IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/imf/imfscr/2026-044.html

People’s Republic of China: 2025 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for the People’s Republic of China

Author

Listed:
  • International Monetary Fund

Abstract

The 2025 Article IV Consultation discusses that the Chinese economy has remained remarkably resilient despite facing multiple shocks in recent years. Gross domestic product (GDP) growth is projected to slow to 4.5 percent in 2026, reflecting the prolonged effects of tariffs and trade policy uncertainty. Deflationary pressures are expected to persist, with inflation projected to rise only gradually amid continued economic slack. Over the medium term, growth is projected to continue decelerating due to a declining labor force, decreasing returns to investment, and slower productivity growth. Risks around the outlook remain tilted to the downside. The main domestic risk is a deeper than-expected contraction in the property sector, which, combined with high debt levels, could contribute to greater domestic demand weakness, entrenched deflation, and continued reliance on exports. Renewed escalation of trade tensions is the key external downside risk. Additional policy stimulus or cooperative resolution of trade tensions pose upside risks.

Suggested Citation

  • International Monetary Fund, 2026. "People’s Republic of China: 2025 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for the People’s Republic of China," IMF Staff Country Reports 2026/044, International Monetary Fund.
    • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfscr:2026/044
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/cat/longres.aspx?sk=574028
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:imf:imfscr:2026/044. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Akshay Modi (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/imfffus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.