Republic of Kazakhstan: 2025 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for the Republic of Kazakhstan

The 2025 Article IV Consultation highlights that Kazakhstan’s economy continued to grow at a rapid pace in 2025, boosted by rising oil output and robust activity in non-oil sectors. Strong domestic demand, underpinned by an expansionary public sector stance, has contributed to clear signs of economic overheating. In the medium-term, growth is projected to moderate to around 3 1/2 percent, and inflation would decline only gradually to its 5 percent target by 2030. The National Bank of Kazakhstan continues to maintain a tight monetary stance amid persistent inflation pressures. Planned fiscal consolidation in the 2026 state-budget will be largely offset by expanding quasi-fiscal activities by State Owned Enterprises, resulting in a continued overall loose public sector stance. Structural reform implementation faces persistent challenges, with the state footprint remaining large and constraining private sector development. Enhancing efforts to diversify the economy and promote private activity in key productivity-enhancing sectors will be crucial to delivering higher levels of sustainable growth.