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Uruguay: 2025 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Uruguay

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  • International Monetary Fund

Abstract

The 2025 Article IV Consultation discusses that Uruguay’s economy rebounded strongly in 2024 driven by a surge in agricultural exports. Growth is expected to moderate at 2.5 percent in 2025, driven by consumption and investment, fueled by the post-pandemic recovery of real wages and reduction in domestic uncertainty. While IMF staff assesses the direct impact of global trade tensions as modest, Uruguay’s economy remains sensitive to commodity price movements, global financial conditions, and regional developments. The financial sector is well-positioned to withstand severe funding pressures and macro-financial shocks. The new administration’s momentum creates opportunities to strengthen macroeconomic stability and institutions and undertake structural reforms. The five-year budget draft law projects lowering the deficit to stabilize debt in the medium term below a new debt anchor, and the new fiscal framework seeks to strengthen credibility and promote fiscal discipline. However, further efforts are recommended to put debt on a downward path. Monetary policy has been appropriately contractionary, bringing inflation and inflation expectations to the target.

Suggested Citation

  • International Monetary Fund, 2025. "Uruguay: 2025 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Uruguay," IMF Staff Country Reports 2025/287, International Monetary Fund.
    • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfscr:2025/287
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