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Kyrgyz Republic: Selected Issues

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  • International Monetary Fund

Abstract

This paper presents a detailed study that reassesses potential output in the Kyrgyz Republic in light of recent structural changes and external shocks, including the pandemic and the regional conflict. Using a combination of production function analysis, state-space models, and univariate filters, the paper provides a comprehensive estimate of the country’s evolving productive capacity. The findings indicate a notable rise in potential output growth to 5.3 percent, largely driven by capital accumulation and labor force expansion. A notable driver of recent growth dynamics is the influx of Russian migrants since 2022. However, total factor productivity remains below historical averages.

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  • International Monetary Fund, 2025. "Kyrgyz Republic: Selected Issues," IMF Staff Country Reports 2025/119, International Monetary Fund.
    • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfscr:2025/119
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