Maldives: Financial Sector Assessment Program-Technical Note on Bank Stress Testing and Climate Risk Analysis

This paper presents a technical note on bank stress testing and climate risks analysis in Maldives. Although the Maldives’ economy has rebounded strongly from the pandemic-induced contraction, macro and financial vulnerabilities remain. The stress test results broadly corroborated the identified vulnerabilities and quantified them. The climate risk analysis considered a micro approach that shocks banks’ immovable asset related loans under three climate scenarios. The system appears well capitalized, although capital ratios are biased upward by large government paper holdings with zero risk weights. The results of the solvency stress test corroborate that banks are less vulnerable to credit risk than they are to the impact of a possible unraveling of the sovereign–bank nexus. Banks’ nonperforming loans (NPL) ratios are projected to increase slightly in the baseline and moderately under stress. The resulting additional loan loss provisions are easily offset by ample pre-provision income.