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Greece: Preliminary Debt Sustainability Analysis-Updated Estimates and Further Considerations

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  • International Monetary Fund

Abstract

This paper provides preliminary debt sustainability analysis (DSA) of Greece. Debt was deemed sustainable, but not with high probability, when the first program was adopted in May 2010. The much deeper-than-expected recession necessitated significant debt relief in 2011–12 to maintain the prospect of restoring sustainability. Serious implementation problems caused a sharp deterioration in sustainability, raising fresh doubts about the realism of policy assumptions, especially from mid–2014. Developments since last summer suggest that a realignment of critical policy, and DSA assumptions can no longer be deferred if the DSA is to remain credible. Staff believes that revised program targets remain sufficiently ambitious to warrant continued support from Greece’s European partners.

Suggested Citation

  • International Monetary Fund, 2016. "Greece: Preliminary Debt Sustainability Analysis-Updated Estimates and Further Considerations," IMF Staff Country Reports 2016/130, International Monetary Fund.
    • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfscr:2016/130
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    Cited by:

    1. Panayiotis Alexakis & Gikas Hardouvelis & Dean Paxson & Gordon Sick & Lenos Trigeorgis, 2018. "Greek Sovereign Debt: Addressing Economic Distress and Growth in the Euro Area," Multinational Finance Journal, Multinational Finance Journal, vol. 22(1-2), pages 1-33, March - J.
    2. Effie Amanatidou & Tonia Damvakeraki & Athina Karvounaraki, 2018. "RIO Country Report 2017: Greece," JRC Research Reports JRC111358, Joint Research Centre.
    3. Amanatidou Effie & Damvakeraki Tonia & Karvounaraki Athina, 2017. "RIO Country Report 2016: Greece," JRC Research Reports JRC105901, Joint Research Centre.

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