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Is the Phillips curve useful for monetary policy in Nigeria?



The objective of this article is to determine if the Phillips curve is a relevant tool to conduct monetary policy in African countries wishing to adopt an inflation-targeting regime. I choose Nigeria as a case of study because it is in the early stage of the implementation of this regime. I estimate a medium-sized model for monetary policy analysis. The model reflects a synthesis between the New Keynesian and the Real Business Cycle (RBC) approaches. Then I estimate the model by using Bayesian econometric technique in order to overcome the shortage of data availability. The study concludes that there is evidence that central banks can control the inflation rate through a Phillips curve, a Taylor rule that includes the exchange rate, and the sterilization of the resources from oil exports. Nevertheless, there are limits to the stabilization program. The same evidence suggests that it is important to implement a credible inflation-targeting regime to reduce inflation gradually, instead of abrupt stabilization attempts with high costs in lost output.

Suggested Citation

  • Carlos Garcia, 2010. "Is the Phillips curve useful for monetary policy in Nigeria?," ILADES-Georgetown University Working Papers inv250, Ilades-Georgetown University, Universidad Alberto Hurtado/School of Economics and Bussines.
  • Handle: RePEc:ila:ilades:inv250

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Nicolas R. Ziebarth & Martin Karlsson, 2014. "The Effects Of Expanding The Generosity Of The Statutory Sickness Insurance System," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 29(2), pages 208-230, March.
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    3. Ziebarth, Nicolas R. & Karlsson, Martin, 2010. "A natural experiment on sick pay cuts, sickness absence, and labor costs," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 94(11-12), pages 1108-1122, December.
    4. Maria De Paola & Valeria Pupo & Vincenzo Scoppa, 2009. "Absenteeism In The Italian Public Sector: The Effects Of Changes In Sick Leave Compensation," Working Papers 200916, Università della Calabria, Dipartimento di Economia, Statistica e Finanza "Giovanni Anania" - DESF.
    5. Georges Dionne & Benoit Dostie, 2007. "New Evidence on the Determinants of Absenteeism Using Linked Employer-Employee Data," ILR Review, Cornell University, ILR School, vol. 61(1), pages 108-120, October.
    6. Rigmar Osterkamp & Oliver Röhn, 2007. "Being on Sick Leave: Possible Explanations for Differences of Sick-leave Days Across Countries," CESifo Economic Studies, CESifo, vol. 53(1), pages 97-114, March.
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    More about this item


    Monetary policy; Phillips curve; inflation-target regime.;

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • O23 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Development Planning and Policy - - - Fiscal and Monetary Policy in Development

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