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Stopping the flow: The effects of US-China cooperation on fentanyl markets and overdose deaths

Author

Listed:
  • Marcus Noland

    (Peterson Institute for International Economics)

  • Julieta Contreras

    (Peterson Institute for International Economics)

  • Lucas Rengifo-Keller

    (Former Peterson Institute for International Economics)

Abstract

Drug overdose is the leading cause of death among Americans aged 15-44, exceeding heart disease, cancer, suicide, vehicular accidents, and COVID-19 in 2023. Most drug deaths are associated with fentanyl. This paper uses data on illicit drug prices to estimate reduced-form price equations of fentanyl, oxycodone, and alprazolam based on supply and demand, including hedonic characteristics. The results are used to estimate the relationship between fentanyl prices and overdoses. They suggest that the Chinese embargo on fentanyl shipments to the United States beginning in May 2019 raised street prices for a limited period, reducing fentanyl overdose deaths in the United States by roughly one-quarter over a three- to five-month period after the announcement.

Suggested Citation

  • Marcus Noland & Julieta Contreras & Lucas Rengifo-Keller, 2025. "Stopping the flow: The effects of US-China cooperation on fentanyl markets and overdose deaths," Working Paper Series WP25-9, Peterson Institute for International Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:iie:wpaper:wp25-9
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    File URL: https://www.piie.com/publications/working-papers/2025/stopping-flow-effects-us-china-cooperation-fentanyl-markets-and
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Drugs; opioids; fentanyl; overdose deaths; China;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • I1 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health
    • F13 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Policy; International Trade Organizations
    • F51 - International Economics - - International Relations, National Security, and International Political Economy - - - International Conflicts; Negotiations; Sanctions
    • K42 - Law and Economics - - Legal Procedure, the Legal System, and Illegal Behavior - - - Illegal Behavior and the Enforcement of Law

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