IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/iie/wpaper/wp11-18.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Applying Hubbert Curves and Linearization to Rock Phosphate

Author

Listed:
  • Cullen S. Hendrix

Abstract

Rock phosphate is a critical, nonrenewable resource for which there is no known substitute in agriculture. Cordell, Drangert, and White (2009) use Hubbert methodology (1956) to estimate the peak--the year after which production will monotonically decline--of world rock phosphate production at 2033-34. This note assesses the applicability of Hubbert's (1949) peak methodology to world rock phosphate production, based on (a) the ability of the model to produce accurate in-sample and out-of-sample forecasts and stable estimates of ultimately recoverable reserves, and (b) the degree to which the rock phosphate market approximates the theoretical conditions underpinning the Hubbert model. In both respects, the application of Hubbert methodology to rock phosphate is found to be problematic.

Suggested Citation

  • Cullen S. Hendrix, 2011. "Applying Hubbert Curves and Linearization to Rock Phosphate," Working Paper Series WP11-18, Peterson Institute for International Economics.
  • Handle: RePEc:iie:wpaper:wp11-18
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://piie.com/publications/working-papers/applying-hubbert-curves-and-linearization-rock-phosphate
    Download Restriction: no

    More about this item

    Keywords

    peak phosphate; Hubbert curves; Hubbert linearization; rock phosphate;

    JEL classification:

    • Q31 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Nonrenewable Resources and Conservation - - - Demand and Supply; Prices
    • Q01 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - General - - - Sustainable Development
    • Q39 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Nonrenewable Resources and Conservation - - - Other

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:iie:wpaper:wp11-18. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Peterson Institute webmaster). General contact details of provider: http://edirc.repec.org/data/iieeeus.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.