The America First investment pledges: How are they structured and are they realistic?

In pursuit of President Donald J. Trump's "America First" agenda, the administration has engaged in high-level bilateral negotiations with allies and partners to encourage them to invest in US industrial and infrastructure projects. Over the last year, the White House has announced commitments by the European Union, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, and several Gulf Cooperation Council countries (Bahrain, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates), among others, to import specific amounts of goods and services from the United States as well as make sizable investments on US soil. These agreements came following considerable pressure by the United States and represent a shift toward a more coercive US foreign policy. Because the administration is helping select the targets of foreign investment, it is embarking on a major expansion of US industrial policy--one paid for by allied countries. The analysis in this Policy Brief shows that much about the announced investment pledges, which surpass $5 trillion, remains unclear or aspirational, suggesting that there may be less certainty than meets the eye.