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Markov-Regime Switching in Economic Variables: Part I. Modelling, Estimating and Testing. - Part II. A Selective Survey

Author

Listed:
  • Kaufmann, Sylvia

    (Department of Economics, University of Vienna)

  • Scheicher, Martin

    (Department of Economics, University of Vienna BWZ)

Abstract

Modelling the growth rate of economic time series with a Markov switching process in their mean and/or their variance allows to take account of two facts that are often encountered in such series, namely that the periods in which each mean is prevailing differ in their duration and that the variance of the time series differ in each period. In a first part, we will motivate the class of regime switching models, and revue the estimating and testing procedures. In the second part, we will present a brief survey of the literature on regime switching models and their applications, and also present first results of actual own research.

Suggested Citation

  • Kaufmann, Sylvia & Scheicher, Martin, 1996. "Markov-Regime Switching in Economic Variables: Part I. Modelling, Estimating and Testing. - Part II. A Selective Survey," Economics Series 38, Institute for Advanced Studies.
  • Handle: RePEc:ihs:ihsesp:38
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    File URL: http://www.ihs.ac.at/publications/eco/es-38.pdf
    File Function: First version, 1996
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Markov Switching; Time Series; EM-Algorithm; Empirical Processes; Macroeconomics; Finance;

    JEL classification:

    • C12 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Hypothesis Testing: General
    • C13 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Estimation: General
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • C63 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computational Techniques
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading

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