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Sincronización de la intensidad del comercio internacional y el ciclo económico: ¿Hay alguna diferencia en los países en desarrollo?


  • César Calderón
  • Alberto Chong


  • Ernesto H. Stein


(Disponible en idioma inglés únicamente) Algunos criterios claves de la obra publicada sobre la zona monetaria óptima son que los países deben sumarse a una unión monetaria para poder establecer lazos comerciales internacionales más estrechos y ciclos económicos más simétricos. Pero ambos criterios son endógenos. Frankel y Rose (1998) hallan que la intensidad del comercio hace aumentar la correlación entre los países industrializados. Analizamos si el mismo resultado se verifica en el caso de los países en desarrollo, ya que sus patrones de comercio internacional y especialización distintos pueden conducir a asimetrías cíclicas entre ellos y entre los países industrializados y los países en desarrollo. Recabamos información anual de 147 países durante el período de 1960 a 1999 (33. 676 pares de países) y hallamos lo siguiente: (i) los países con un mayor volumen de comercio bilateral muestran una mayor sincronización del ciclo económico, y el aumento de una desviación estándar de la intensidad del comercio bilateral hace aumentar la correlación de producción de 0,05 a 0,09 en todos los pares de países; (ii) los países con estructuras de producción más asimétricas muestran una menor correlación con el ciclo económico; (iii) los efectos de la integración comercial sobre los ciclos económicos es mayor en el caso de los países industrializados que en pares de países tanto en desarrollo como industrializados-en desarrollo; (iv) un aumento de la desviación estándar en la intensidad del comercio bilateral conduce a repuntes de la producción de 0,25 a 0,39 entre países industrializados, y de 0,08 a 0,10 en nuestra muestra de pares de países industrializados-en desarrollo, y de 0,03 a 0,06 entre países en desarrollo; (v) las repercusiones de la intensidad del comercio sobre la correlación del ciclo es menor mientras mayores son las asimetrías de la estructura de producción entre los países.

Suggested Citation

  • César Calderón & Alberto Chong & Ernesto H. Stein, 2003. "Sincronización de la intensidad del comercio internacional y el ciclo económico: ¿Hay alguna diferencia en los países en desarrollo?," Research Department Publications 4316, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department.
  • Handle: RePEc:idb:wpaper:4316

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    References listed on IDEAS

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