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El acuerdo MERCOSUR-Unión Europea: evaluación de impacto económico para las políticas de implementación

Author

Listed:
  • Cicowiez, Martin
  • Giordano, Paolo

Abstract

Este trabajo provee una evaluación ex ante de los efectos macroeconómicos, sectoriales y distributivos del Acuerdo de Asociación MERCOSUR-Unión Europea, tomando como punto de referencia el inicio de la vigencia de su pilar comercial en mayo de 2026. Mediante un modelo de Equilibrio General Computable global dinámico recursivo, calibrado con la base de datos GTAP 12 (año base 2023), se simulan escenarios de liberalización que abarcan la eliminación gradual de aranceles, la expansión de contingentes arancelarios, la reducción de medidas no arancelarias y de barreras al comercio de servicios, así como los efectos de productividad derivados de la apertura y de la profundización de la integración regional intra-MERCOSUR. Se estima que el Acuerdo generaría efectos agregados positivos para los cuatro países del MERCOSUR en términos de crecimiento económico, reducción del desempleo y disminución de la pobreza. Los resultados proveen insumos para el diseño de políticas de acompañamiento a la implementación del Acuerdo.

Suggested Citation

  • Cicowiez, Martin & Giordano, Paolo, 2026. "El acuerdo MERCOSUR-Unión Europea: evaluación de impacto económico para las políticas de implementación," IDB Publications (Working Papers) 14764, Inter-American Development Bank.
    • Handle: RePEc:idb:brikps:14764
    DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.18235/0014523
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    JEL classification:

    • F13 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Policy; International Trade Organizations
    • F15 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Economic Integration
    • F17 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Forecasting and Simulation

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