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Economic Fallout of Social Conflict: Evidence from Social Media and Satellite Images

Author

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  • Grazzi, Matteo
  • Llamas, Paola
  • Lotti, Giulia
  • Peña, Werner

Abstract

In this paper, we leverage a quasi-experimental design and innovative sources of information to examine the impact of rising social conflict and political instability in Haiti. By exploiting this geographical heterogeneity and leveraging data from Facebook and satellite imagery, we show the impact of different types of violence on economic activity in the context of countries with limited data availability. We find that 1 more political event or civil event in an arrondissement, is associated with a decrease by approximately 2% in economic activity in the following 5 months-time window. Importantly, the Facebook data also allows for a disaggregation of the effects by sector, with the most impacted sectors by rising insecurity being home services, business & utility services, and professional services.

Suggested Citation

  • Grazzi, Matteo & Llamas, Paola & Lotti, Giulia & Peña, Werner, 2025. "Economic Fallout of Social Conflict: Evidence from Social Media and Satellite Images," IDB Publications (Working Papers) 14440, Inter-American Development Bank.
    • Handle: RePEc:idb:brikps:14440
    DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.18235/0013858
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    JEL classification:

    • C80 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Data Collection and Data Estimation Methodology; Computer Programs - - - General
    • O54 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Latin America; Caribbean
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • R11 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General Regional Economics - - - Regional Economic Activity: Growth, Development, Environmental Issues, and Changes
    • Q34 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Nonrenewable Resources and Conservation - - - Natural Resources and Domestic and International Conflicts

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