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Vaccination or NPI? A Conjoint Analysis of German Citizens’ Preferences


  • Jacques Bughin
  • Michele Cincera
  • E. Kiepfer
  • Dorota Reykowska
  • Florian Philippi
  • Marcin Zyszkiewicz
  • Rafal Ohme
  • Dirk Frank


Our results, based on a recent survey of German citizens, highlight three important insights: a) regarding the baseline, with 70% effective vaccine, more than 3 out of 10 will not accept to be vaccinated and among those considering vaccination, 1/3 still would prefer to be vaccinated in the next six months rather than immediately; b) among attributes, an effective vaccine may come as a solution to compensate for the costs induced by NPI, especially when NPI are invasive and might continue for an extended period; c) voluntary compliance is highly preferred by citizens over imposed measures whether it relates to vaccination choice, lockdown measures, or work location choice during the pandemic. Backing up those findings in monetary value, an immediate shot of a 100% effective vaccination is estimated to be worth in the range of 11,400€ but the value of the shot quickly falls to no value when effectiveness drops below 50. In comparison, the burden of extra full lockdown and social distancing is about 775€ per citizen per month, while the cost of imposing protective rules lies in the range of 1,500 to 2,500€, depending on the rule analyzed. As most current vaccines are being proven to have high efficacy, a strategy that selects the most effective vaccine candidates while emphasizing how the vaccine may stop the pain of lasting lockdowns will be appropriate to nudge the population towards vaccination. Control measures that are too restrictive may be welfare-deteriorating, but enough NPI measures must be recommended as long as vaccination adoption is not sufficiently large.

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  • Jacques Bughin & Michele Cincera & E. Kiepfer & Dorota Reykowska & Florian Philippi & Marcin Zyszkiewicz & Rafal Ohme & Dirk Frank, 2021. "Vaccination or NPI? A Conjoint Analysis of German Citizens’ Preferences," Working Papers TIMES² 2021-045, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
  • Handle: RePEc:ict:wpaper:2013/320642

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    Covid-19; Vaccine strategy; Non-Pharmaceutical Interventions; Conjoint analysis;
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