Regionale Faktoren der langfristigen Beschäftigungsentwicklung in Deutschland im Zeitraum 1999-2023

"Regional labor markets in Germany have always been subject to different structural conditions that influence local employment growth. In recent years, the effects of demographic change, digitalization, and the ecological transformation of the economy have become increasingly visible – although very unevenly across regions – and have in turn shaped regional employment dynamics. The project “Vergleichende Analyse von Länderarbeitsmärkten – VALA 2025” analyses differences in regional employment dynamics between 1999 and 2023. Using a shift-share regression approach, it identifies factors contributing to these disparities. The analysis considers the effects of regional industry, skills, and firm-size structures, the influence of location-specific characteristics, as well as demographic factors on employment growth. A particular focus is placed on differences between East and West German regions and between different structural types of districts. On a national scale, the number of jobs subject to social insurance contributions increased by around 22 percent during the study period. However, this average masks considerable regional disparities in employment dynamics, with a range of about 120 percentage points. While most district types in West Germany experienced positive employment growth during the period, this was true in East Germany only for the majority of independent large cities and urban districts. Our regression results suggest that various structural differences and location-specific characteristics of regional labour markets account for the substantial variance in regional employment dynamics. We also find systematic disparities between district structure types in East and West Germany. A sectoral structure advantageous to employment growth particularly benefits large cities, which specialize in dynamic service industries. Another factor fostering employment growth in major urban labour markets is the skill structure of the labour force, especially the above-average share of highly qualified workers. With regard to the effect of skills, significant East-West disparities exist as well, with East German regions benefitting from a relatively low share of unskilled workers. By contrast, the firm-size structure tends to dampen employment growth in large cities, whereas in less densely populated regions, the predominantly small-scale firm structure promotes growth. Favourable location-specific conditions are often found in larger cities, with East German regions lagging behind West German ones in this respect. The same applies to the age-structure effect: negative impacts of an aging workforce during the study period were observed predominantly in the eastern part of the country. Both the substantial differences in regional employment dynamics and the highly differentiated impact of various influencing factors suggest that labour market and regional policy also needs to vary greatly across regions. In particular, improving the skills structure through education and training may offer potential to positively influence employment dynamics in many regions. Regarding demographic developments, the key challenges are to attract young and well-qualified workers and to maintain the productivity of older workers through increased participation in further training." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))