Auswirkungen der Zuwanderung aus den neuen EU-Mitgliedsstaaten auf den SGB-II-Leistungsbezug von Einheimischen

"This research report analyzes how migration from the new EU member states affects the native population's receipt of SGB II benefits. The focus is on beneficiaries who are capable of working, as this group is likely to be the most affected. Despite a significant increase in immigration, there has been no increase in SGB II benefit receipt among the native population at the macroeconomic level. On the contrary, the period of increased immigration from the new EU member states coincides with a decline in SGB II benefit receipt among the native population. However, macroeconomic time series only allow statements to be made about correlations, not about causal relationships. For this reason, supplementary regression analyses are carried out at regional and individual level. These analyses use regional variations in immigration from the EU-13 countries and relate them to changes in SGB II benefit receipt among the native population. The results of these analyses do not indicate that immigration from the EU-13 countries had a demonstrable effect on SGB II benefit receipt among the native population. Neither at the regional nor at the individual level can a systematic and statistically significant correlation be established between the extent of immigration and changes in the number of native benefit recipients. The estimated effects are mostly small, sometimes mixed, and statistically uncertain. Overall, the findings suggest that immigration from the EU-13 countries did not cause any systematic changes in SGB II benefit receipt among the native population during the period under review. The question of the possible fiscal impact of migration on social security systems was not addressed in depth in this analysis. However, given the high labor force participation and employment rates of the immigrant group considered here, the effects are likely to be positive." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))