Arbeitsmarkt im Wandel: Deutschland muss die Transformation annehmen, um seine Produktivität und Wettbewerbsfähigkeit zu stärken

"Germany’s labour market has remained relatively robust despite ongoing economic weakness and concerns about its competitiveness. The employment rate remains high, with dependent employment growing, although at a slower rate than before. However, economic challenges in the form of declining vacancy postings and rising unemployment are now visible, particularly affecting low-skilled and long-term unemployed individuals. Simultaneously, Germany faces a persistent shortage of skilled workers, with many positions requiring skilled labour remaining unfilled. The coexistence of rising unemployment alongside unfilled vacancies is a central concern for the country’s economic transformation. The labour market is being shaped by demographic shifts, digitalization, and decarbonization, all of which require new skills and adjustments in employment patterns. Germany’s productivity growth has been sluggish in recent years, with GDP per worker stagnating since 2017. The COVID-19 pandemic temporarily disrupted employment but also accelerated digital investments, though primarily among high-performing firms, deepening the digital divide. While the health and education sectors have absorbed much of the employment growth, they are characterized by lower productivity levels, contributing to the overall stagnation in productivity. Manufacturing, traditionally the backbone of Germany’s economy, has experienced a prolonged period of stagnation, with notable declines in production and employment, particularly in the automotive and metal industries. A drop in exports, especially to China, and high energy prices following the Russian invasion of Ukraine have exacerbated these struggles. The car industry faces additional pressure from weakening demand for electric vehicles and growing competition from Chinese automakers. Overall, manufacturing productivity has remained weak due to a lack of investment in advanced digital technologies. Despite economic difficulties, skilled labour shortages remain prevalent, particularly in smaller firms and industries such as construction and hospitality. Large firms and the public sector have an easier time filling their vacancies. A low rate of job reallocation further complicates the situation, as labour mobility is essential for adapting to new, innovative roles. The widespread use of short-time work (Kurzarbeit) during the pandemic contributed to stabilizing employment but could also have slowed down economic transformation by reducing workforce mobility. Germany must fully embrace digitalization and decarbonization to maintain its competitiveness. Routine-based, low-skilled jobs are particularly at risk of being replaced by digital technologies, with automation potential increasing over time even for more complex occupations. Digitalization has yet to significantly impact employment levels, but it is transforming job content and business activities, requiring workers to develop new skills. Similarly, the ecological transformation demands green skills, with a growing number of apprenticeships now linked to sustainability-focused occupations. A major obstacle to economic transformation is the decline in vocational training and continuing education. Firm-sponsored training, which had been widespread before the pandemic, has yet to recover to pre-2020 levels. The number of new apprenticeship contracts also remains lower than before COVID-19, posing risks to the development of a skilled workforce. Compounding these challenges, Germany’s educational outcomes have deteriorated, as evidenced by declining PISA scores and a substantial number of adolescents leaving school without formal qualifications. To address these structural challenges, Germany must significantly increase investments in education, vocational training, and workforce development. Enhancing digital skills and supporting job mobility will be crucial for improving labour productivity and ensuring economic growth. Without proactive measures to support the transition, Germany risks a continued decline in competitiveness, sluggish economic growth, and a persistent mismatch between labour supply and demand. Only by prioritizing human capital and embracing the transformation, the country can secure well-paid employment and sustain its position as Europe’s largest economy." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))