Befristete Beschäftigung in der Stichprobe der Integrierten Arbeitsmarktbiografien (SIAB)

"Since 2011, employment notifications for social security have been recorded using a new activity code (Tätigkeitsschlüssel), which includes the binary characteristic of "fixed-term employment." This allows fixed-term and permanent employment relationships to be identified in the administrative data of the IAB. This report provides a primarily descriptive analysis of fixed-term employment for the years 2012 to 2021 using the SIAB data (Sample of Integrated Labour Market Biographies), supplemented by the Establishment History Panel. In the literature on fixed-term employment, a central question is whether fixed-term contracts serve as a bridge leading to permanent employment over time. Related to this question, it is also important to examine whether fixed-term and permanent employees differ in their socio-economic characteristics and prior employment history. Additionally, the quality of employment following a fixed-term contract is analyzed. On the employer side, different strategies for using fixed-term employment are identified, including workforce flexibility and improved applicant screening during the fixed-term period. The first empirical focus of this report is on describing the data generation process and assessing data quality. Individual employment notifications are first aggregated into establishment-level employment episodes. The resulting trends in entries into fixed-term employment are broadly consistent with other data sources. To analyze transitions and employment durations, employment episodes are further aggregated into employment chains, with periods in between defined as non-employment episodes. The second empirical focus is on analyzing the time process and the determinants of transitions from non-employment into fixed-term and permanent employment. A graphical analysis of non-employment durations suggests an adaptation process: individuals with more frequent non-employment episodes in their work history appear more willing to accept fixed-term employment. Looking at duration model estimates, duration dependence in transitions to fixed-term and permanent employment is evident in that job entry probabilities decrease after about three months of non-employment. For women, transition rates to employment increase again after one year, possibly reflecting the effects of parental leave. Regarding the relationship between transitions into fixed-term and permanent employment and prior employment history, the findings indicate a “both/and” effect. Strong status dependence is observed: previous fixed-term employment is associated with a higher likelihood of transitioning into another fixed-term job and often with a lower probability of entering permanent employment. This suggests a risk of reinforcing disadvantages associated with fixed-term employment. However, the bridging function of fixed-term employment is also evident, as fixed-term work experience is valued positively when transitioning to permanent jobs. Furthermore, an unstable employment history does not necessarily lead to long-term instability, as multiple job changes are associated with higher transition rates into both fixed-term and permanent employment. On the employer side, differences in transition risks into fixed-term employment are primarily linked to industry affiliation, likely reflecting sector-specific workforce needs, caused for example by fluctuating product demand. Transition rates into fixed-term employment are significantly lower in establishments with fewer than ten employees, suggesting that such firms, exempt from dismissal protection regulations, rely less on fixed-term contracts. A strong positive correlation is found between the transition rate into fixed-term employment and the proportion of fixed-term employees in the hiring establishment. This indicates that some firms systematically use fixed-term contracts, which poses a risk of persistent employment instability for workers. The third empirical focus examines the duration of employment starting with a fixed-term contract. Looking first at establishment employment episodes, fixed-term employment episodes are shown to be significantly shorter than permanent ones. When analyzing employment chains, those consisting solely of fixed-term episodes are found to be much shorter than continuous permanent employment chains. Interestingly, employment chains that start with a fixed-term contract but transition to permanent employment tend to have longer durations than continuously permanent employment chains. A comparison of covariate means highlights differences between workers hired on fixed-term versus permanent contracts. Once again, the high proportion of fixed-term employees in the hiring establishment is striking. As a final result, observed differences in employment durations are partly explained by differences in individual and establishment characteristics between fixed-term and permanent employees." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))