Arbeitsmarktintegration ukrainischer Geflüchteter: Eine internationale Perspektive

"This research report investigates the labor market integration of Ukrainian refugees across various European countries, including many EU member states as well as the UK, Switzerland, and Norway, in the period from Q4 2022 to Q1 2024. Comparing the employment rates of Ukrainian refugees across different countries presents challenges due to the absence of a uniform database, such as the European Labor Force Survey (LFS). To address this, we constructed a comprehensive database that harmonizes employment data from comparable time points and employs consistent definitions for calculating rates. Employment data were obtained from administrative records in countries where available, and from various surveys conducted at different times in other nations. Additionally, this study compiles indicators currently recognized in research as having an influence on labor market integration, using comparable data and definitions to enhance the robustness of the analysis. From the end of 2022 to early 2024, the employment rates of Ukrainian refugees in Europe showed significant variation. By the first quarter of 2024, Germany's employment rate had reached nearly 27 percent, placing it in the European midfield. At the end of 2022, countries such as the UK, the Netherlands, and Lithuania had employment rates exceeding 50 percent, while Croatia, Norway, Romania, Slovenia, Switzerland, and Spain reported rates below 15 percent. Germany also reported a mid-field rate of 20 percent at the end of 2022. Throughout 2023, Denmark, Austria, France, Poland, and Lithuania saw modest increases in employment rates. However, this upward trend did not persist; some countries experienced stagnation, while others, including Romania, saw declines. Conversely, Slovenia, Switzerland, Finland, Spain, and Estonia witnessed slight increases. The UK consistently maintained its high employment rate across the period. In Germany, beyond the influence of seasonal fluctuations, there was a steady annual increase in employment rates, culminating in 27 percent by early 2024. To investigate the reasons behind the varying employment rates of Ukrainian refugees across different European countries, this report delves into the relationships between employment rates and various socio-demographic, institutional, and economic factors. Our objective is to achieve a preliminary, yet more comprehensive understanding of the factors that drive labor market integration of refugees and to assess the impact of these factors. It is important to note that the analyses conducted are descriptive in nature, not causal. They are intended to provide an initial insight into the correlations, helping to identify potential areas for more in-depth, causal research in the future. Multivariate analyses underscore the crucial impact of the demographic composition of newcomers and the institutional and economic conditions in the destination countries on the labor market integration of Ukrainian refugees. Countries with a higher demand for low-skilled labor – measured by the size of the low-status labor market segment or employees in low-skilled occupations – tend to have higher employment rates for these individuals. This may be attributed to the fact that such jobs often have fewer language requirements and other qualifications, allowing for quicker job placements. Additionally, there is a negative correlation between strict labor market regulations, such as enhanced job security measures, and the likelihood of Ukrainian refugees finding employment. Furthermore, a negative correlation exists between the growth rate of unemployment and the employment of Ukrainian refugees, suggesting that newcomers are less likely to secure jobs in countries with increasing unemployment. Social infrastructure significantly impacts the labor market integration of Ukrainian refugees, many of whom are women with children. Consequently, our regression analysis shows that the availability of childcare is correlated with employment rate of refugees. Countries with better childcare facilities tend to see higher employment rates among refugees, as this infrastructure supports the ability of parents, particularly mothers, to enter the workforce. Similarly, comprehensive access to health services also correlates with higher employment rates, as it ensures that refugees are physically and mentally able to work. Interestingly, the relationship between social transfer payments, measured by the ratio of costs for caring for Ukrainian refugee per capita to the gross domestic product per capita of the respective host country, and employment rates is small and statistically insignificant. While it is often assumed that transfer payments play a central role in employment, this hypothesis is not confirmed in our analysis. However, social networks play a critical role in the employment integration of refugees. Countries with a larger Ukrainian community often report higher employment rates among Ukrainian refugees. Additionally, a strong command of English within the destination-country population positively corelates with employment rates, probably because it facilitates better communication and with that integration into the labor market. The integration policy strategies across EU member states and other European countries vary significantly. Some nations adopt a "work first" approach, prioritizing immediate employment without initial preparatory measures such as language courses or qualification measures. This strategy aims at quick job placement but often overlooks the need for the development of comprehensive skill. In contrast, other countries focus on the long-term, sustainable integration into the labor market. These nations implement comprehensive language programs, qualification measures, and targeted job placements that align more closely with the refugees' qualifications. Although this approach may result in so-called "lock-in" effects, where refugees might experience a delayed entry into the labor market, it is more likely to lead to stable employment relationships, jobs that match the refugees' skills, and higher earnings over time. Scandinavian studies underscore these differences in outcomes. Countries that emphasize the "work first" model tend to show higher employment rates for refugees in the short term. However, nations that invest in education and language acquisition demonstrate better integration results in the medium and long term. This success extends beyond mere employment rates and earnings to include broader aspects of social inclusion and quality of life for refugees. Such findings highlight the importance of tailored integration policies that consider both immediate employment needs and long-term societal benefits. The multivariate analyses further confirm the significant impact of demographic factors, particularly family constellation, on labor market integration. There is a statistically significant negative correlation between employment rates and older age and having more children per working-age woman. Finally, the data reveals a positive time trend: employment rates for all demographic groups tend to increase with the length of their residence. This suggests that many of the initial barriers to employment faced by refugees diminish over time, indicating that with longer stays, refugees are more likely to overcome these initial challenges and secure employment. Overall, this report underscores that Germany, with its comprehensive long-term integration strategies, is well-positioned to significantly enhance the employment rates of Ukrainian refugees over the medium to long term. Insights from refugees who arrived between 2013 and 2019 validate this potential, with employment rates reaching 68 percent eight years after arrival. These findings emphasize the necessity of continually reassessing and refining integration strategies to effectively promote the integration of refugees. Such adjustments are crucial not only for improving the immediate economic prospects of refugees but also for contributing to the broader economy, ultimately yielding substantial long-term benefits." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))