Arbeitsangebots- und Verteilungswirkungen der Mini- und Midijob-Reformen 2022/2023 - eine Simulationsstudie

"This paper examines the effects of the reforms for marginal employment (minijobs) and midijobs that took effect on October 1, 2022, in terms of labor supply, household disposable income, and the fiscal effects. In particular, we consider the effects of a) raising the marginal employment threshold from 450 euros to 520 euros, b) raising the midijob threshold from 1,300 euros to 2,000 euros, and c) revising the schedule of social security contributions for employers and employees. The effects of the reform are simulated using the IAB microsimulation model (IAB-MSM). The model can represent the reform in detail and estimate the resulting changes in labor supply, taking into account the non-take-up of means-tested benefits. The results show small positive participation effects (about +55,000 persons) and small negative labor volume effects (about -40,000 full-time equivalents). The change in labor supply is mainly concentrated among women, who account for 89 percent of the increase in labor force participation and 94 percent of the decline in supplied working hours. The reform creates an incentive, especially for married women in couple households, to take up marginal or part-time employment on the one hand, but also to switch from full-time to part-time or even marginal employment on the other. Overall, the labor supply for minijobs increases by about 42,000 persons and the labor supply for part-time employment by about 111,000 persons. This is mainly at the expense of full-time employment (-90,000 persons). Further, the simulation shows small increases in equivalent household income in all income deciles, ranging from 0.01 percent to 0.23 percent of the respective mean decile income. According to the simulation, the reform-related annual budget deficit amounts to about EUR 0.4 billion. In the case of social security, the annual deficit amounts to EUR 1.7 billion. While the simulation results suggest only a small reform-induced increase in marginal employment, the question of whether there will nevertheless be a significant displacement of employment subject to social security contributions by marginal employment in the medium term as a result of the reforms cannot be conclusively answered, since the approach chosen cannot take into account the reactions of the labor demand side to the reforms. For example, minijobs may have become more attractive for employers after the reform, especially due to the dynamization of the minijob salary threshold. However, the results tend to indicate that the reform strengthens minijobs as a form of employment. This should be viewed critically, as research results show numerous disadvantages of minijobs for employees and thus argue for a reduction rather than an expansion of minijobs." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))