Auswirkung des Strukturwandels für die Bundesländer in der langen Frist - Qualifikations- und Berufsprojektion bis 2040

"The federal states in Germany are characterised by different population and economic structures, leading to different labour shortages and surpluses. Due to their varied developments, differences in the labour market performance of the federal states will persist in the future. With the help of the QuBe model (7th wave of the QuBe baseline projection), long-term immanent megatrends such as demographic development, economic structural change and digitalization are captured by the model - and effects on the economy and labour market can be illustrated by means of quantitative projections. The analysis shows that the future labour market development will be driven by demographic trends in the long term and thus by an increasing population decline. This effect prevails despite the changes in work patterns and behavioural changes in the wake of the Covid 19 pandemic and the current energy crisis. According to our prediction, the labour supply will decline in ten out of sixteen federal states until 2040, and particularly intense in the East German states. Exceptions are observed for Baden-Württemberg, Bavaria and Hessen as well as the city states of Berlin, Bremen and Hamburg. As a result, the demand for labour will decline simultaneously in most federal states. With the exception of Bavaria, Schleswig-Holstein and Hamburg, the unemployment rate is expected to decrease resulting in labour shortages in various economic sectors and occupations. Thus the recruitment of workers is likely to become increasingly difficult for employers in many economic sectors and regions in the longer term. The demand for qualified staff in the healthcare sector or in IT services will be continuously growing. Recruitment difficulties in these sectors will increase for companies in all German regions. Recruitment will also become more difficult in manufacturing/technical occupations, in which a high number of people with professional qualifications will be retiring. The return to its original growth path is all the more important for the German economy after the slump caused by rising energy costs as a consequence of the Russian attack on Ukraine. Only then, a persistence of unemployment and an increased withdrawal from the labour market can be effectively counteracted (Hutter/Weber 2020; Fuchs/Weber/Weber 2020). After all, people who permanently withdraw from the labour market exacerbate the recruitment situation from the firm’s perspective. The structural change, which has probably been accelerated by the pandemic and the energy crisis, is already posing major challenges especially for the German states where the manufacturing or automotive industries are dominating the economic structure. Due to increasing digitization and decarbonization the German economy has to be permanently modernized and requires capacity for innovation. For preventing a loss of competitiveness, a well-trained workforce is essential. This requires the best possible qualification of future generations and a willingness to engage in lifelong learning, as well as the attractiveness of Germany as a location for qualified migrants who are urgently needed in the labour market. Detailed results can be found in labour market dossiers on the individual German states (www.QuBe-Dossiers.de)." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))