Die Folgen des Kriegs in der Ukraine und der Energiekrise für Wirtschaft und Arbeitsmarkt in Deutschland

"This research report describes the medium- and long-term impacts of the war in Ukraine and the energy crisis on the economy and labour market in Germany. Based on model calculations, two scenarios are simulated: one scenario that includes the current war in Ukraine and reflects the actual developments (reference scenario) and one scenario in which a war in Ukraine could have been avoided theoretically (alternative scenario “Peace in Europe”). A comparison of both scenarios illustrates the possible impacts of the war on different economic sectors and occupational groups in Germany. The results have to be interpreted within the context of high uncertainty concerning the course of war. Depending on further developments, the results may deviate from the actual future economic consequences. Nevertheless, the impact on the German economy and labour market can be shown based on the assumptions made. Further conclusions can be drawn with regard to the scope of impact on economic sectors and occupational groups. However, since there is a high degree of uncertainty, especially with regard to the further price development of energy prices, an aggravation scenario was also calculated, in which it was assumed that the energy price increases in the coming months would be twice as high as previously observed. The scenarios have been modelled based on different assumptions and findings which were derived from the escalation stage as of the end of May 2022. It is assumed that the sanctions against Russia remain in place throughout the whole period analysed, even if the war will be ended. Further assumptions relate to the number of Ukrainian refugees that migrate to Germany, the development of energy and import prices, merchandise exports, government spending on defence and national security as well as relief packages for businesses and households adopted by the government. The results show that the war in Ukraine and the energy crisis will have negative medium- and long-term impacts on the German economic output and the labour market. According to the calculations, the price-adjusted gross domestic product (GDP) will be 1.7 percent lower in 2023. The economic growth is mainly weakened by the rise in prices for fossil raw materials. They put a strain on the export industry as well as consumer spending. Lower export activities have the strongest impact on the weaker economic performance. Until 2030 the German economy loses 260 billion Euros of value added. The labour market is also negatively affected. Between 2022 and 2028 the employment decreases by an average of 150,000 workers in comparison to the expectations before the start of the war in Ukraine and the energy crisis. The labour force in Germany is increasing due to the influx of refugees. However, the weaker economic and earnings prospects lead to an almost unchanged labour supply in the first few years. Only from 2025 onwards will the influx be reflected in a higher labour supply. From a labour market perspective, the hospitality sector is - once more, after troubled times during the COVID 19-pandemic - most affected by the impacts of the war in Ukraine and the energy crisis. Lower consumer spending leads to a much-reduced demand for labour. Employment also decreases in the industry sector. Due to lower labour intensities, however, the decrease in the industry sector is less pronounced than in other labour-intensive service sectors. In contrast, the public administration, defence and social insurance institutions as well as the educational sector will have a higher demand for labour as a consequence of the war in Ukraine and the energy crisis. This holds true for the medium- and long-term and is also reflected in the occupational groups. While current labour shortages in the hospitality sector may relax due to a reduced demand for employees, the labour shortages intensify for teachers in schools of general education, social workers and curative education therapists. Differentiating for requirement levels, the war in Ukraine and the energy crisis induce a shift of employees towards more complex tasks in the long-term. A comparison of the labour market according to sector-occupational-combinations illustrates that the war in Ukraine and the energy crisis do not solely result in job reductions but also in job creation. In sum, the job reductions dominate but there will be structural changes in the labour market. This is particularly noticeable in the medium-term and diminishes over time. In view of these findings, weaker economic output, lower employment and structural changes with regard to sectors and occupations have to be expected in the upcoming years. On one hand, the challenge for policy makers and economic actors will be the reintegration of workers who have lost their jobs due to the impacts of the war in Ukraine and the energy crisis. On the other hand, reactions to tightening labour shortages are required, as shortages intensify in certain occupations as a consequence of the war in Ukraine and the energy crisis. If refugees from Ukraine settle for longer periods in Germany, their labour market integration bears an additional chance. However, if the energy price increases are twice as high as observed so far (+160%), next year's GDP would be almost four percent lower than in the alternative scenario. In 2030, GDP would be half a percent lower. Under these assumptions, 660,000 people (1.5%) fewer would be employed on the labour market after three years than in the alternative scenario "Peace in Europe". In 2030, 70,000 people (0.2%) jobs would still be affected by the downsizing." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))