„MoveOn“ IV: Effekte eines veränderten Mobilitätsverhaltens auf die Erwerbstätigkeit aus regionaler Perspektive

"The mobility system is currently undergoing profound change. The results of the MoveOn scenario, which was prepared by the Federal Institute for Vocational Education and Training (BIBB) and the IAB together with the Gesellschaft für wirtschaftliche Strukturforschung (GWS) at the federal level as part of the QuBe project, show that a change in mobility behaviour, i.e. more public passenger transport instead of private transport, more rail transport instead of air transport and more electric cars instead of cars with internal combustion engines, could have a positive, albeit small, effect on economic growth and employment in the long term. Overall, this will result in 60,000 more people being employed in 2040 than in the baseline projection. According to this scenario, the fear that a modernised and environmentally friendly mobility system would lead to high employment losses would therefore not come true. Analyses at the regional level are lacking so far. The results of this report for 34 labour market regions show that the greatest positive effects on employment development can be expected in Berlin. The Dusseldorf/Ruhr and Hamburg regions also benefit noticeably, as in Berlin especially in the economic sector "land transport and transport in pipelines". The greatest employment gains in these regions are due to the changed modal split in passenger transport, i.e. a changing use and combination of the various means of transport. This is more noticeable in metropolises than in rural areas. The expected reduction in demand for vehicle repair services and a likely change in occupational demand due to the switch to autonomous driving will lead to a loss in employment in all regions. Even if only slightly, the majority of regions in the north and east are negatively affected by the mobility transition. Large metropolitan regions are predominantly winners of the change in mobility, although there is certainly a greater need to catch up in more rural areas. In addition to most rural areas, the metropolitan regions of Hanover and Halle/Leipzig are experiencing job losses. These regions have an economic focus on vehicle construction, where the reduced personnel requirements resulting from the switch from combustion engines to electric motors are noticeable. The same applies to the regions of Regensburg, Chemnitz, Kassel and Stuttgart. When looking at the relative effects of the change in mobility behaviour on the occupational structure of the individual regions, it becomes clear that there will be a significant reduction in gainful employment especially in vehicle driving - across almost all regions (with the exception of Berlin, where an increasing number of gainfully employed persons in vehicle driving is forecast compared to the baseline projection). In summary, however, it can be stated that the change in mobility behaviour has only a very small impact on the number of employed persons in most regions and has an overall positive effect. Nevertheless, the upheaval due to the change in motorised individual transport poses a major challenge for some regions in the coming decades." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))