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The impact of news on US household inflation expectations

Author

Listed:
  • Wolfgang Karl Härdle
  • Shih-Kang Chao
  • Jeffrey Sheen
  • Stefan Trück
  • Ben Zhe Wang

Abstract

Analysis of monthly disaggregated data from 1978 to 2016 on US household in ation expectations reveals that exposure to news on in ation and monetary policy helps to explain in ation expectations. This remains true when controlling for household personal characteristics, their perceptions of the e ectiveness of government policies, their expectations of future interest rates and unemployment, and their sentiment levels. We nd evidence of an asymmetric impact of news on in ation expectations particularly after 1983, with news on rising in ation and easier monetary policy having a stronger e ect in comparison to news on lowering in ation and tightening monetary policy.

Suggested Citation

  • Wolfgang Karl Härdle & Shih-Kang Chao & Jeffrey Sheen & Stefan Trück & Ben Zhe Wang, 2017. "The impact of news on US household inflation expectations," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2017-011, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:hum:wpaper:sfb649dp2017-011
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    In ation expectations; news impact; forecast disagreement;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D83 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Search; Learning; Information and Knowledge; Communication; Belief; Unawareness
    • D84 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Expectations; Speculations
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation

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