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Technology Benchmarks for Sustained Economic Growth

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Abstract

An economic growth theory model is developed in which worldwide economic and population growth is optimistically allowed to be increasing in current population-and-economy size, but degradation of environmental quality can cause eventual population-and-economic collapse. The existence of an environmental technology time path that guarantees sustained growth (dY/dt >= 0) is proven. This time path is labeled a technology benchmark, a path of environmental technology in use that society must achieve to ensure against population-and-economic collapse. The World3 global simulation model, developed by an interdisciplinary team of scientists to analyze global growth and its relation to environmental issues, is used to derive estimates of the requisite time path for several key technologies. The estimated time paths are compared with available information on actual rates of technological change. Such technology benchmarks could serve as measurable goals for national and international policy.

Suggested Citation

  • Kenneth L. Simons, 2001. "Technology Benchmarks for Sustained Economic Growth," Royal Holloway, University of London: Discussion Papers in Economics 00/5, Department of Economics, Royal Holloway University of London, revised Feb 2001.
    • Handle: RePEc:hol:holodi:0005
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    Keywords

    economic growth; limits; environment; technology benchmarks; global change;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • O4 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity
    • Q0 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - General
    • O3 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights

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