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Procjena potencijalnog rasta i jaza BDP-a u Hrvatskoj

Author

Listed:
  • Goran Jovičić

    (Croatian National Bank, Croatia)

Abstract

Svrha je ovog rada ukratko predstaviti i usporediti rezultate procjene potencijalnog rasta i jaza BDP-a za Hrvatsku u razdoblju od 1996. do 2016. godine dobivene primjenom triju različitih metodoloških pristupa – HP-filtra, metode proizvodne funkcije i multivarijatnog filtra (MVF). Dobiveni rezultati upućuju na postojanje značajnih kvantitativnih razlika između pojedinih metoda procjene te je stoga potrebno biti oprezan pri njihovoj primjeni u daljnjim izračunima. Provedena analiza pokazuje da su nakon svjetske financijske krize potencijalni rast domaćega gospodarstva i jaz BDP-a dugo bili negativni, što je u skladu s ocjenama koje za Hrvatsku redovito objavljuje Europska komisija. Vrijedi istaknuti i kako je ukupna faktorska produktivnost davala malen doprinos potencijalnom rastu BDP-a tijekom cijeloga promatranog razdoblja te je njezin rast bio osjetno niži nego u većini zemalja Europske unije. To upućuje na postojanje strukturnih problema u domaćem gospodarstvu koji koče djelotvornije iskorištavanje postojećih resursa.

Suggested Citation

  • Goran Jovičić, 2017. "Procjena potencijalnog rasta i jaza BDP-a u Hrvatskoj," Pregledi 38, Hrvatska narodna banka, Hrvatska.
    • Handle: RePEc:hnb:pregle:38
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    File URL: https://www.hnb.hr/documents/20182/2112241/p-038.pdf/87044a86-7326-406c-95b2-56b258ddf706?version=1.0&t=1512129831405
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    JEL classification:

    • E10 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - General
    • E20 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy

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