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Covid-19の感染シナリオに沿った経済予測シミュレーターの構築に向けて

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  • 後藤, 隼人

Abstract

本稿では、インフルエンザのパンデミックデータをもとにした新型コロナウイルス感染症の新規感染者数の中長期的な感染シナリオを元に、景気動向指数であるTDB 景気DI の推移を類推することで、倒産件数、自殺者数、完全失業者数といった統計数値を予測した。2022 年時点における予測結果は、感染が収束するシナリオではリーマンショック前のピークをおおむね回復した2013年～2014年とほぼ同じ水準に戻るが、感染が長期間収束しないシナリオでは2009年～2010年のリーマンショック後の大幅な景気後退期と同じ水準となった。このようなアプローチのシミュレーションによって、感染医学的な観点を踏まえた、“ウィズコロナ” 時代における予測型の経済政策に関する議論の促進が期待できる。

Suggested Citation

  • 後藤, 隼人, 2020. "Covid-19の感染シナリオに沿った経済予測シミュレーターの構築に向けて," TDB-CAREE Discussion Paper Series J-2020-04, Teikoku Databank Center for Advanced Empirical Research on Enterprise and Economy, Graduate School of Economics, Hitotsubashi University.
    • Handle: RePEc:hit:tdbcdp:j-2020-04
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