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若年者の直面する雇用・所得リスクに関する一考察-パネルデータと予備的貯蓄モデルを用いた動学分析-

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  • 阿部, 修人

Abstract

標準的な予備的貯蓄モデルに正規・非正規および失職という雇用形態変化リスクを導入し、近年の日本の若年層が直面するリスクの評価を試みた。近年の個人パネルデータを用い、所得・雇用リスクを雇用形態ごとに比較すると、正規雇用者に比べ、非正規雇用者は高い失職確率、低い賃金水準、高い所得分散というリスクを負っている。そのため、正規から非正規に雇用形態が変化すると消費水準が低下する。一方、非正規から正規に転換すると消費水準が増加する。このパネルデータに基づく結果を動学モデルを用いて要因分解を行った結果、正規・非正規間の雇用形態変化に関しては、最も重要な要因は平均賃金の差であり、続いて失職確率の差となり、雇用形態を所与とした所得変動リスクの差は大きな効果をもたらさないという結果を得た。

Suggested Citation

  • 阿部, 修人, 2013. "若年者の直面する雇用・所得リスクに関する一考察-パネルデータと予備的貯蓄モデルを用いた動学分析-," Research Center for Price Dynamics Working Paper Series 9, Research Center for Price Dynamics, Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University.
  • Handle: RePEc:hit:rcpdwp:9
    Note: April, 2013
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