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経営者の在任期間と業績予想の正確度, Top Executive Tenure and Management Forecast Accuracy


  • 石田, 惣平
  • Ishida, Souhei


本研究は2005年から2013年までに日本の株式市場に上場している企業を対象として、経営者の在任期間と業績予想の正確度との関係を検証している。分析の結果、経営者の在任期間と業績予想の誤差との間にはU字の関係があることが確認されている。また、経営者の在任期間と業績予想の誤差U字の関係は経営者の年齢やコーポレトガバナンスの質に応じて変化することがわかっている。本研究の発見事項は、経営者は就任して一定期間までは自社を取り巻く経営環境や社内にある様々な経営資源に関する知識の収集に努めるため、業績予想の正確度が改善する一方で、一定期間をすぎるとエントレンチメントが支配的となり、経営者には業績予想の正確度を高めようとする動機がなくるため、業績予想の正確度が低下することを示唆している。, This study examines the relation between top executive tenure and management forecast accuracy using a sample of Japanese listed firms for the period 2005-2013. I find that top executive tenure exhibits a U-shaped relation with management forecast error. Furthermore, the U-shaped reation with management forecast error varies with different levels of (1) top executive’s age, and (2) corporate governance quality. These results are consistent with the interpretation that top executive’s on-the-job learning improves management forecast accuracy up to a threshold, at which point top executive’s entrenchment dominates and management forecast accuracy worsens.

Suggested Citation

  • 石田, 惣平 & Ishida, Souhei, 2019. "経営者の在任期間と業績予想の正確度, Top Executive Tenure and Management Forecast Accuracy," Working Paper Series 224, Management Innovation Research Center, School of Business Administration, Hitotsubashi University Business School.
  • Handle: RePEc:hit:hmicwp:224
    Note: 『会計プログレス』第21号に掲載のため、論文データ(PDF)を取り下げ。[2020/6/17], Withdrawn due to publication. [Jun. 17, 2020], August 2018, Revised in May 2019

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