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経営者交代と業績予想情報, Top Executive Turnover and Management Forecast Information


  • 石田, 惣平
  • ISHIDA, Souhei
  • 蜂谷, 豊彦
  • HACHIYA, Toyohiko


本研究は,経営者交代の意思決定において,業績予想情報が利用されているかどうかを検証している。主たる発見事項は次の通りである。第1 に,誤差の大きい期初予想を公表している企業の経営者ほど交代させられる確率は高いことが確認されている。第2 に,予想を改訂する回数が多い企業の経営者ほど交代させられる確率は高いことが明らかとなっている。第3 に,予想を大きく改訂する企業の経営者ほど交代させられる確率が高いことがわかっている。これらの発見事項は,経営者の能力を評価するにあたり,業績予想情報が用いられていることを示唆するものであり,業績予想情報は経営者の労働市場において重要な情報源であることを示している。, This study examines whether management forecast information released by the top executive is used to change him. We find that the probability of top executive’s turnover is positively related to the magnitude of management forecast error. We then provide evidence that the probability of top executive’s turnover is positively related to the number and magnitude of management forecast revision. These findings suggest that management forecast information is used to assess the top executive’s ability, and management forecasts provide a key source of information to the top executive’s labor market.

Suggested Citation

  • 石田, 惣平 & ISHIDA, Souhei & 蜂谷, 豊彦 & HACHIYA, Toyohiko, 2018. "経営者交代と業績予想情報, Top Executive Turnover and Management Forecast Information," Working Paper Series 223, Management Innovation Research Center, School of Business Administration, Hitotsubashi University Business School.
  • Handle: RePEc:hit:hmicwp:223
    Note: 『現代ディスクロージャー研究』第18号に掲載のため、論文データ(PDF)を取り下げ。[2019/12/18], Withdrawn due to publication. [Dec. 18, 2019]

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