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石油ブームのロシア・マクロ経済への影響 : National Accounting Matrixの行列分解による分析

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  • 中村, 靖

Abstract

原油国際市場価格高騰による石油ブームが2001年以降のロシア経済成長に貢献していることは疑いの余地がない。一方、「オランダ病」と「資源の呪い」の議論は、石油ブームが中長期的にはロシア経済に否定的影響を与えると警告している。石油ブームが経済に与える影響に単一のパターンは存在しない。現在の石油ブームがロシア経済に与える影響は、ロシア経済の具体的な条件を考慮して分析しなければならない。我々は、生産システム内と所得-支出を含む全経済システム内での石油部門と他の部門の波及効果パターンを比較するために、国民経済計算行列(R-NAM)を作成し、R-NAM乗数行列をRobinson and Roland-Horstの方法で行列分解した。その結果、石油部門の需要創出効果は、生産システム内では小さいが、全経済システム内では他の生産部門と同等かそれ以上であることがわかった。需要創出という点でロシアの石油ブームの貢献は大きいことがわかったが、石油ブームの影響を完全に分析するには通貨・金融面を含むモデルの作成が必須である。

Suggested Citation

  • 中村, 靖, 2006. "石油ブームのロシア・マクロ経済への影響 : National Accounting Matrixの行列分解による分析," Discussion Paper Series a484, Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University.
  • Handle: RePEc:hit:hituec:a484
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    Keywords

    オランダ病; ロシア経済; 石油産業; Social and National Accounting Matrix; 行列分解;

    JEL classification:

    • C67 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Input-Output Models
    • L71 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Primary Products and Construction - - - Mining, Extraction, and Refining: Hydrocarbon Fuels
    • Q33 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Nonrenewable Resources and Conservation - - - Resource Booms (Dutch Disease)

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