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Tax Policy and Consumer Spending: Evidence from Japanese Fiscal Experiments

Author

Listed:
  • K. Watanabe
  • T. Watanabe
  • T. Watanabe

Abstract

This paper studies the extent to which the impact on consumer spending differs between temporary and permanent, as well as anticipated and unanticipated tax changes. To discriminate between them, we use institutional information such as legal distinction between temporary and permanent tax changes, as well as timing of policy announcement and implementation. We find that the impact of temporary changes is significantly smaller than that of permanent ones. We also find that more than 80 percent of Japanese consumers, including those who distinguish between temporary and permanent tax changes, respond to tax changes not at the timing of policy announcement but at the timing of implementation. We suggest an interpretation that some of them follow a near-rational decision rule.

Suggested Citation

  • K. Watanabe & T. Watanabe & T. Watanabe, 1999. "Tax Policy and Consumer Spending: Evidence from Japanese Fiscal Experiments," Discussion Paper Series a376, Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University.
  • Handle: RePEc:hit:hituec:a376
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Watanabe, Katsunori & Watanabe, Takayuki & Watanabe, Tsutomu, 2001. "Tax policy and consumer spending: evidence from Japanese fiscal experiments," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(2), pages 261-281, April.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Consumption; Permanent income hypothesis; Taxation; Near-rationality;

    JEL classification:

    • E21 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Consumption; Saving; Wealth
    • H31 - Public Economics - - Fiscal Policies and Behavior of Economic Agents - - - Household

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