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Why Are Japan’s Trade Unions Actually Growing? A Decomposition of Population Datasets

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  • WELS, Jacques
  • BRYSON, Alex
  • KAMBAYASHI, Ryo
  • KUWAHARA, Susumu
  • NAKAMURA, Akie

Abstract

This study examines two decades of unionization trends in Japan, comparing administrative data from the Basic Survey on Labor Unions (OECD source) with three population-based surveys: the Survey on Work and Life of Workers (SWLW), Japan Household Panel Survey (JHPS), and Japanese General Social Survey (JGSS). While official statistics show declining union density (falling to 16.4% by 2022), survey data reveal consistently higher rates (23-30%) and upward trends. Using shift-share analyses and Blinder-Oaxaca decomposition across two periods (X and Y), we identify workplace union presence as the primary driver of membership growth, accounting for a quarter of the observed increase. We find rising unionization among traditionally underrepresented groups: part-timers show significant unexplained membership gains (0.25 percentage points), suggesting successful outreach beyond compositional changes. Small firms (

Suggested Citation

  • WELS, Jacques & BRYSON, Alex & KAMBAYASHI, Ryo & KUWAHARA, Susumu & NAKAMURA, Akie, 2026. "Why Are Japan’s Trade Unions Actually Growing? A Decomposition of Population Datasets," Discussion Paper Series 776, Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University.
  • Handle: RePEc:hit:hituec:776
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    2. DiNardo, John & Fortin, Nicole M & Lemieux, Thomas, 1996. "Labor Market Institutions and the Distribution of Wages, 1973-1992: A Semiparametric Approach," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 64(5), pages 1001-1044, September.
    3. José A. F. Machado & José Mata, 2005. "Counterfactual decomposition of changes in wage distributions using quantile regression," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 20(4), pages 445-465, May.
    4. Martyn Andrews & Robin Naylor, 1994. "Declining Union Density in the 1980s: What Do Panel Data Tell Us?," British Journal of Industrial Relations, London School of Economics, vol. 32(3), pages 413-432, September.
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